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Forecasts of breakdown


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#1 Wonko the Sane

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 05:34 PM

According to Wolfgang Münchau

Go to google news and search for "The eurozone really has only days to avoid collapse"

November 27, 2011 7:38 pm
...
bla bla bla
...
The eurozone has 10 days at most.


Here are a couple pictures of the guy (as found by google):
Posted Image

Posted Image

To make sure if the Maya predictions supposedly affirming that the world will end in 2012 are true, people have been waiting for several centuries.
IF, as I hope, these predictions will prove not true we will have NOT anymore any Maya HIgh Priest available ( to spit on their faces). :(

In a few days we should be able to see if this apodictical and catastrophical prediction by this Financial Times "guru" has *any* merit. :dubbio:

If - by any chance and hopefully - the Eurozone will still be alive on December 7, 2011, I presume that if each member of the board would send him a short message to the effect of:


Wolfgang Münchau, you are a moron, a dumb-ass and I spit you (metaphorically) on the face!


in order to show him our appreciation, it could be a nice intiiative. :whistling:

His e-mail is here:
http://www.ft.com/in...wolfgangmunchau
wolfgang.munchau@ft.com

Of course, if the Eurozone will actually end abruptly within the deadline, we will have some problems in e-mailing him our sincere compliments for his correct prediction. :unsure:

:cheers:
Wonko

#2 pscEx

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 05:45 PM

The whole discussion about "possibly loosing my money with an Euro breakdown" does not make me excited.

I do not have money!

Peter :cheers:

#3 Wonko the Sane

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 05:56 PM

The whole discussion about "possibly loosing my money with an Euro breakdown" does not make me excited.

I do not have money!

Peter :cheers:


Well, then you are selfish! :w00t:
Don't you care about all your European friends that do have some of it (until the 7th of December next)? :ph34r:

:rofl:

:cheers:
Wonko

#4 sambul61

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 06:15 AM

In order to show him our appreciation, it could be a nice intiiative. :whistling:
Of course, if the Eurozone will actually end abruptly within the deadline, we will have some problems in e-mailing him our sincere compliments for his correct prediction.

I assume he's talking about common currency, not common borders. Is stable common currency possible, when productivity and gross product are so different in Eurozone countries - if yes, by what means? Is everything good now with Eurozone?

#5 Mikorist

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 10:47 AM

European Parliament, Strasbourg, 16 November 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_6365-AvJI :buehehe:

#6 Nuno Brito

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 11:02 AM

Well, if the Eurozone is really going down then we might as well look on the bright side..

I'll visit the bank and get myself some credit to buy a big house and a top-gear car. If his predictions are accurate, this I won't need to pay either of them after the 7th.. If they are wrong, I will send the bills over to Mr. Munchau and complain that he hoaxed me.. :lol:

I assume he's talking about common currency, not common borders. Is stable common currency possible, when productivity and gross product are so different in Eurozone countries - if yes, by what means? Is everything good now with Eurozone?

Well, most countries with the Euro coins are grouped into something called European Union. To some extent, it is similar to what you find in the United States (of America) where the dollar is the same currency albeit different states generate different gross product, different earnings and different influence sizes.

A stable currency is a currency that nobody wants in the first place. There is nothing wrong with the Euro, it is a strong coin and really handy when travelling to the US, enjoying the nice exchange difference..

What you see right now is a lot of speculation and bad politicians, not a good mixture for any society.

In my country we are doing a general clean up and there was a lot of dirt hidden under the rug that only now starts to surface. For example, the government privatized a local bank at the cost of over 4 billion Euros and now sold to another country (Angola) for 30 million Euros.

This means that from taxes, 400 Euros were deducted from my pocket to buy a bankrupt bank.

These type of government acts should really be punished with jail time. Nothing wrong with the coin. The problem is corruption and interests of other countries to drown up competing economies.

#7 sambul61

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 12:22 PM

I agree about corruption part, which becomes so evident and proliferating around the world during the last 20-30 years even in highly developed nations. Interesting part is, why it slowly goes out of public control leading to cyclic unrests and major social revolutions...

As to similarities btw US States and European nations in terms of common currency, there are hardly many. US is a nation with more or less homogenized population and similar set of rules everywhere. European Union is a collection of very different countries with totally different rules, economies and population habits. I guess, its major purpose was to create an influence balance with US after Soviet Union collapse. Germany get united and stronger, hence driven for economic expansion instead of earlier attempted war colonization - things tend to repeat in history. However, similar to the failed war effort, its current European economies capture effort might fail too, because Germany population would not support it anymore without autocratic regime of 1940s favorable only to the rich, but grossly fraudulent, dehumanizing and oppressive for the rest.

US states become united, and the State independent through a lengthy war. I doubt, European countries will have to go through similar to 1940s process again, hence Euro might indeed have limited future throughout all Europe. Who knows...

#8 Wonko the Sane

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 12:35 PM

What you see right now is a lot of speculation and bad politicians, not a good mixture for any society.

I think this needs some hairy :w00t: reasoning to show the difference :whistling:.

A "bad politician" may either steal (for his own profit) some public money or waste it (by using it in pointless projects, giving it to people for doing nothing, or buying goods at an above market price).

Surprisingly no actual "damage" to the money is done, money (or wealth) is transferred UNjustly from one subject (the national treasure) to another (the pockets of the politician or of the provider of goods and service at high prices or whomever).

If you play Monopoly, where a finite amount of money exists and each player is given initially a same small part of it, eventually someone wins (due to ability, luck, stupidity of other players, whatever) and has more money than everyone else. But when you put back everything into the game box, the SAME TOTAL amount of money is still there, noone has made it appear from thin air, and noone physically destroyed any note.

So politicians will contribute (badly) to money redistribution but they won't create money nor destroy it.

From time to time they also happen to go to jail for their wrong doings.

Executive economists/banks and the like on the other hand create money (or "virtual" wealth) from thin air and destroy it at will.
More or less, this is also acceptable :dubbio:, since after all the money they manage is either their own or they have been given the money by people that trusted them (rightly or wrongly is another question).

From time to time they also happen to go to jail for their wrong doings.

The real, problem as I see it, are these guys that are only theorists and "analyzers", and I include in the category also the so-called "rating agencies" besides the "financial times" opinionists and similar guru's.

They influence the public opinion, they create PANIC :ph34r:, they create problems out of nothing or hide the problems that actually exist until it's too late to recover. :frusty:

They make "predictions", but they never "pay" when their predictions (historically wrong in - say - 90% of the cases) prove to be wrong.

It is their job, and until there are people that will buy newspapers/books, it's allright, they should be perfectly free :) to make their predictions.

Only, should these predictions prove wrong, they should be called the names they deserve.

:cheers:
Wonko

#9 Nuno Brito

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 01:01 PM

A "bad politician" may either steal (for his own profit) some public money or waste it (by using it in pointless projects, giving it to people for doing nothing, or buying goods at an above market price).

About this matter... One of the ministers from the new government started his newly appointed job by driving to work with a humble scooter. Symbolizing the needs to cutting in expenses. Yesterday the same guy was noted as driving a brand new 86 000 Euros Audi A7 that he requested for his personal use while minister: http://www.dn.pt/esp...ccao=TV+e+MEDIA

Posted Image

I mean, what's up with politician cars that need to be changed every year with the brand new models?


So politicians will contribute (badly) to money redistribution but they won't create money nor destroy it.

If the money stayed in Portugal it would be less bad. However in the case that I mentioned about the BPN bank, all the money was effectively transferred to Angola in Africa. Far away from any EU regulation or control. I can only imagine how wealthy the people behind this operation got after acquiring a bank for 0,00075% of its cost to tax payers.

#10 sambul61

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 02:01 PM

Ahhh... corruption - its history's as long as the history of the world. :) Yet it will exist for as long as the world exists - because we're all human. Like Clinton said: "I did it because I could".

As to money moving btw parties while the total stays the same - its only for starters. Once united, population in less productive countries wants to live to "average" European standard, which is only possible by borrowing money from more productive nations and importing goods & paying wages & pensions (! :)) with money they borrowed. Similar thing happens in the US now: China borrows money to US in exchange of Treasury bonds, so that US companies can get them via landing chain and spend importing goods from China - at the end its proven extremely beneficial to CN, giving more and more control over the World economy and US infrastructure they buy with US bonds and profit received from selling their goods in the US.

But, eventually European creditors tend to ask for interest and debt repayment, and request to transfer debtor countries' infrastructure to them in lue of debts. Once that happen, the same population who eagerly consumed goods without due production, starts crying "our nation is for sale" and demand better life (as if it mostly depends on governments and creditors, but not on themselves). At that point the influx of money dries up, product import drops, while domestic product is next to none, prices skyrocket, and here we go again with the printing press suddenly recalling how old good currency looks. Printing more money however only makes things worse, unless accompanied by local production grows.

So the basic reality is, before something can be stolen, it first needs to be produced, made available for thieves. If nothing is manufactured, while ambitions & demands are high, its pretext to social revolutions and getting rid of foreign financial landers (read "colonizers"). :) And yes, speculators and "prediction experts" can affect stability to some degree, but not as fundamental as imbalance of domestic production to consumption demands.

#11 Nuno Brito

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 02:57 PM

Very wise words. Still, I prefer to blame the government. The country's population has no fault in this process.. ;)

#12 Wonko the Sane

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 03:48 PM

Very wise words. Still, I prefer to blame the government. The country's population has no fault in this process.. ;)


Except - obviously - that of massively voting for the "wrong people" :whistling: which consequently become the government.....
..... the real issue is when you vote (according to you) for the "right" people, but the other party(ies) win, then you can blame you neighboors....;)

:cheers:
Wonko

#13 sambul61

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:43 PM

In the US some demanded Campaign Contribution Reform that would block large entities from sponsoring elections, so that candidates would be supported by small donations from population Paypal style. Now they say, the only way to change or enforce laws appears to be through Occupy Wall Street style movements. Because the same people are in charge of bringing new laws who were elected or assigned by the old law. :) So what happen with the Reform demand? Supreme Court found that according to US Constitution corporations are PEOPLE (read again)! And entitled to UNLIMITED campaign contributions.

So what protesters in Greece and elsewhere say now: "corrupted" system appears very stable protecting mostly those who pay for protection. Ohhh, population elects the rulers - yes or no? NO... They say, population is allowed to elect only "approved" rulers. First, leading parties block by volumes independent candidates. Once they approve their candidates, they kick-in mass media with money train provided by corporations, banks and unions depending on affiliation, to make the candidates appealing to electorate with extreme sophistication of trained policy gamers, and not only during election campaigns, but in-between, because all large media outlets are also owned by just a few people who "belong" and "protected". So loosely educated and unprepared for mind wars masses are easily manipulated to elect a suitable candidate, basically proportionally to costly TV time exposure.

Lets take published reports from Belarus as an example well known in Europe. The guy printed huge influx of money right before his re-election and sharply increased salaries and pensions to retirees. Of course product stock to cover the paper waste was available only for 2-3 months, but that was enough time to run and win the campaign while suppressing others. Right after re-election massive inflation and long lines in supermarkets become a reality. BUT...it was too late for wakeup. So its similar tricks in every country, just specific to its situation and population habits.

Similar thing was with Eurozone. The trade-off was: you join - we'll give you money, support economy, eliminate tariffs, lover costs, bring you in...our haven. The only thing that went "forgotten" by politicians was to stimulate production in own countries by locally owned companies. And who decided this was the right thing to do? Now the same guys face long expected music of someone grabbing their country's infrastructure and policy control. And suddenly people are surprised how that can happen - they're loosing own country. Of course they would prefer someone keep shipping them tons of Euro forever, but nothing rolling back. :)

#14 pscEx

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:11 AM

Today is December 7th ...

Peter :dubbio:

#15 Mikorist

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Posted 10 December 2011 - 11:11 PM

Posted Image wall in Greece :loleverybody:


:dubbio: :buehehe:




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