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#1 Mikorist

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 08:30 AM

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids, communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites - including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois. And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr Thomson.

Researchers say the Sun has been awakening after a period of several years of low activity.


http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-12493980

They fear a huge solar flare is due to erupt in 2013 - causing blackouts and global chaos.

The once-in-a-century disaster could see power grids crash, communication systems collapse, planes grounded, food supplies hit and the internet shut down.

Everything from home freezers to car sat navs would be affected.

The disaster could mirror the Great Solar Flare of 1859.

That wreaked horrendous damage across Europe and America - burning out telegraph wires across both continents.

The threat of another disaster - which could mirror scenes in Hollywood blockbuster 2012 - is so great that Defence Secretary Liam Fox called an emergency conference in London yesterday.

Dr Fox told experts that incalcul-able damage would be caused if an explosion similar to the one in 1859 occurred in modern times. He called on scientists to build a strategy against the impending disaster.

The talks, organised by the Electric Infrastructure Security Council, heard that the Sun will reach a critical stage of its cycle in 2013.

A surge of magnetic energy in its atmosphere is likely to trigger radiation storms which cause massive power surges.

Such a phenomenon occurs only once about every 100 years.

The last big flare, in 1859, smothered two thirds of the Earth's skies in a blood-red aurora. Such scenes could occur again, causing cloud storms in major modern cities such as London, Paris and New York.

In 1989, a more common smaller solar flare took out power stations in Quebec, Canada.

In the movie 2012, starring John Cusack, a solar flare causes global temperatures to soar. The planet is then battered by tsunamis and earthquakes, threatening mankind.

Yesterday's conference also heard that a hostile power could cause a similar effect by exploding a nuclear weapon in space.

Dr Fox added: "While we all benefit from scientific advances, so we also create vulnerabilities that can be exploited by our enemies.



"However advanced we become, the chain of our security is only as strong as its weakest link."

Last night the electric security council discussed a plan of action.

And former US government defence adviser Dr Avi Schnurr warned: "A geomagnetic storm could shatter nations all over the earth. We cannot wait for disaster to spur us to action."


PRECIOUS jewels could rain down during dust storms on faraway planets, scientists say.

University of St Andrews boffins investigating atmospheric systems believe dust clouds in parts of space could be full of rubies and sapphires.




http://www.thesun.co...th-in-2013.html

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http://www.lmsal.com.../latest_events/



Posted ImageThe scale measuring their strength has three general categories – Class C, Class M and Class X – with Class X flares being the most powerful.
The GOES X-ray Flux plot contains 5 minute averages of solar X-ray output in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from the SWPC Primay GOES X-ray satellite is shown. As of Feb 2008, no Secondary GOES X-ray satellite data is available. Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.

Magnetometar

Posted Image
The GOES Hp plot contains the 1-minute averaged parallel component of the magnetic field in nanoTeslas (nT), as measured at GOES-13 (W75) and GOES-11 (W135). The Hp component is perpendicular to the satellite orbit plane and Hp is essentially parallel to Earth's rotation axis. If these data drop to near zero, or less, when the satellite is on the dayside it may be due to a compression of Earth's magnetopause to within geosynchronous orbit, exposing satellites to negative and/or highly variable magnetic fields. On the nightside, a near zero, or less, value of the field indicates strong currents that are often associated with substorms and an intensification of currents in the Earth's geomagnetic tail.



SWPC Real-time Monitor Displays

http://www.swpc.noaa...lots/index.html

Global D-Region Absorption Prediction

Posted Image

Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.

* Use browser Reload when returning to this page to ensure latest data.
* This page dynamically updates once a minute.


http://www.swpc.noaa...drap/index.html

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The most powerful flare of the last 500 years was the first flare to be observed, on September 1, 1859, and was reported by British astronomer Richard Carrington. The event is named the Solar storm of 1859, or the “Carrington event”. The flare was visible to a naked-eye, and produced stunning auroras down to tropical latitudes such as Cuba or Hawaii, and set telegraph systems on fire.[7] The flare left a trace in Greenland ice in the form of nitrates and beryllium-10, which allow its strength to be measured today (New Scientist, 2005).

In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003 (initially measured at X28 and later upgraded to X45).[8][9] Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20), October 28, 2003 (X17) and September 7, 2005 (X17).[10] In 1989, during former solar cycle 22 two large flares occurred in March, 6 (X15) and August, 16 (X20) causing disruptions in electric grids and computer systems.[11]

A complete list is available at http://www.spaceweat.../topflares.html


Posted Image


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If the estimated velocity does stay constant, then the bulk of the storm will be absorbed by the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere and the majority of the South American continent in the Southern Hemisphere. This increase in water temperature should cause evaporation leading to heavy precipitation in Western Europe and North Africa over the latter part of the week. South America may see record temperatures for this time of year as well.

If the storm slows down, then the bulk of the energy may be absorbed by the east coast of North America and by the Andes in South America. In both cases it may cause high elevation water trapped as snow to melt and cause flooding downstream a few days later.

Continued flares from sunspot 1158 may extend heating
Though smaller flares, the series of 4 flares following the ‘big one’ may extend the heating affect to most of the North American continent, as well as a portion of the Pacific Ocean. The affects may be more global in nature. We expect heavy precipitation around the globe. Stay tuned for more updates.


http://www.astronomy...day_Morning.asp
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#2 Mikorist

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 09:16 AM

collected sources:

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index.htm

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#3 Nuno Brito

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 10:09 AM

To some extent we are protected by the atmosphere. The biggest problem seems to be the fact that our satellites enjoy no such protection and that may disrupt communications for a while, giving a lot of work to a lot of people to fix things up.

We are reaching the peak of a sun cycle that occurs at each 11 years: http://en.wikipedia....Solar_variation

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#4 Mikorist

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Posted 27 February 2011 - 03:16 PM

M 3.6 class - Feb 24 2011 :



I'm wondering if there could be large explosion about X100 something like 2012 - twice then M class (1859 flare),
which is far above the scale where the Class X....and can induce EMP
and then we can have the rapid changes in the configuration of Earth's magnetic
field which, in turn cause electrical damage....

Who don't know much about EMP:


http://en.wikipedia....omagnetic_pulse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWUycTx8kbo

http://www.empactame...g/solar_emp.php

According to the NAS report, the power supply to some 130 million people can be lost in about 90 seconds. Key elements of the electricity dependent infrastructure are then lost. Water which is pumped electrically is not available to many users immediately if they are supplied by pump and fairly soon for those who have water gravity supplied but initially pumped from reservoirs, wells or lakes. Electrically powered transportation vehicles stop and gas fueled vehicles cannot be supplied with electrically pumped gas which would affect deliveries. Back-up generators will supply relief until fuel supplies run out. Nuclear plants are shut down when major Grid problems occur and their control systems dependent on electricity may have been damaged to the point of not functioning. Coal plants typically have a 30 day supply and won’t be resupplied if the transportation system is lost. Hospitals basically have provisions for 72 hours emergency operation and beyond that life sustaining services are no longer possible. As refrigeration and heating is lost food and medical supplies spoil leaving these necessities no longer usable. Factories making food and medical products are shut down making resupply impossible. "In the US alone there are a million people with diabetes," Kappenman says. "Shut down production, distribution and storage and you put all those lives at risk in very short order."

It may take months or years to even begin to rebuild the destroyed infrastructure as melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced. "From the surveys I've done, you might have a few spare transformers around, but installing a new one takes a well-trained crew a week or more," John Kappenman further advises. "A major electrical utility might have one suitably trained crew, maybe two." The few spare transformers are used up rather quickly. The major transformers in the Grid are unique so up to 12 months can be required to build the specialized transformers for segments of the power supply system that has been affected.

Assistance to the widespread affected areas will not occur quickly and the function of emergency equipment and services will likely be reduced. Paul Kintner, a plasma physicist at Cornell University notes, "if a Carrington event happened now, it would be like hurricane Katrina, but 10 times worse." Total impact for the Hurricane Katrina disaster has been reported in the $80 billion to $125 billion range. The NAS Report advises that a severe geomagnetic storm impact could be as high as $2 trillion and require take a four to ten year recovery period.


http://www.empactame.../solar_emp2.php

:cheers:

#5 Mikorist

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Posted 02 March 2011 - 05:01 PM

January 2005 was a stormy month--in space. With little warning, a giant spot materialized on the sun and started exploding. Between January 15th and 19th, sunspot 720 produced four powerful solar flares. When it exploded a fifth time on January 20th, onlookers were not surprised.

"We've been hit by strong proton storms before, but [never so quickly]," says solar physicist Robert Lin of UC Berkeley. "Proton storms normally develop hours or even days after a flare."This one began in minutes.


According to space weather theory--soon to be revised--this is how a proton storm develops:

It begins with an explosion, usually above a sunspot. Sunspots are places where strong magnetic fields poke through the surface of the Sun. For reasons no one completely understands, these fields can become unstable and explode, unleashing as much energy as 10 billion hydrogen bombs.

From Earth we see a flash of light and X-rays. This is the "solar flare," and it's the first sign that an explosion has occurred. Light from the flare reaches Earth in only 8 minutes.



Back to the drawing board: If a CME didn't accelerate the protons, what did?

"We have an important clue," says Lin. When the explosion occurred, sunspot 720 was located at a special place on the sun: 60o west longitude. This means "the sunspot was magnetically connected to Earth."

He explains: The sun's magnetic field spirals out into the solar system like water from a lawn sprinkler. (Why? The sun spins like a lawn sprinkler does.) The magnetic field emerging from solar longitude 60o W bends around and intersects Earth. Protons are guided by magnetic force fields so, on January 20th, there was a superhighway for protons leading all the way from sunspot 720 to our planet.

The sun's magnetic field spirals like water from a lawn sprinkler. The field line emerging from solar longitude 60 degrees west usually leads to Earth.

"That's how the protons got here," speculates Lin. How they were accelerated, however, remains a mystery
.


Nasa Source:

http://science.nasa....10jun_newstorm/

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#6 Mikorist

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Posted 11 March 2011 - 05:50 PM

X1.5 10-3-2011 23:30

Posted Image

Magnetometar today shows about 120-130 nanoTeslas (nT)
mag.jpg







#7 Mikorist

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Posted 28 September 2011 - 04:27 PM

Strong Solar Storm Reaching Earth

ScienceDaily (Sep. 26, 2011) — NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center -- the nation's official source of warnings and alerts about space weather and its impacts on Earth -- issued a warning for a strong, G3 geomagnetic storm on Earth resulting from a significant explosion from the sun's corona Saturday morning (Sept. 24, 2011). G-scale solar storms range from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).
Posted Image

GOES 15 satellite image. The fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 arrived this morning at 1237Z (8:37am Eastern Time). It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity. Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this event, though it may persist long enough for viewers in North America. The bulk of the CME missed the Earth, meaning the storm intensity and duration are less than what they would have been in the case of a direct hit. (Credit: Image courtesy of NOAA)
Impacts have arrived on Earth, jolting the planet's magnetic field and triggering strong "geomagnetic storming" in some regions. Saturday's coronal mass ejection -- a burst of charged particles and magnetic field that streamed out from the sun at about five million miles an hour -- delivered a glancing blow to the planet. If it had been directed straight at Earth, the geomagnetic storming could have reached "severe" to "extreme" levels.
Geomagnetic storms on Earth can impede the operation of electrical grids and temporarily damage radio and satellite telecommunications. No impacts to the power grid, satellite or other technological systems have yet been reported yet from today's geomagnetic storm, which could persist for several more hours.
The spot on the sun that produced Saturday's coronal mass ejection remains active and is well positioned to deliver more storm activity in the next several days. NOAA's SWPC will continue to watch the active region for activity, and will continue to inform its customers -- grid operators, satellite operators, airlines and more -- about what to expect, so they can protect infrastructure and the public. Space weather can also trigger spectacular aurora (northern and southern lights). Tonight, viewers in Northern Asia and Europe have a chance of seeing aurora.

http://www.scienceda...0926182029.htm#

#8 Mikorist

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Posted 24 October 2011 - 12:23 PM

Published: October 22, 2011 :

Filament Eruption & M-class Flare AIA 171 (2011-10-22 11:00:00 - 2011-10-22 13:59:36 UTC)


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Published: October 23, 2011 :


INSTANBUL — At least 138 people were killed and about 350 were injured after a powerful earthquake struck eastern Turkey,


http://www.nytimes.c...urkey.html?_r=1

#9 Mikorist

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Posted 09 November 2011 - 11:45 PM

M1.1 Solar Flare and CME (Nov 9, 2011)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5q3CRMZxHpQ

http://www.solarham.com/
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9 November 2011 Last updated at 23:00 GMT


At least three people have been killed by a 5.6 magnitude earthquake which has struck eastern Turkey, Turkish media report.

About 20 buildings have collapsed, including a six-storey hotel in the city of Van, trapping dozens of people.

The hotel was mostly occupied by journalists and aid teams, according to reports.

Last month, about 600 people were killed by a 7.2 earthquake in Van province.

Television pictures showed residents and rescuers trying to lift debris to free people believed to be trapped under the hotel.
Map

Rescue workers were using high-powered lights to work through the night.

Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said the quake toppled a school and a number of mudbrick homes, as well as the hotel.

He said rescue teams were being sent to the region from the capital, Ankara, and other areas.

Alper Kucuk from the Turkish Red Crescent told the BBC 11 people had been rescued from the rubble of the hotel.

He said most of the other buildings that had collapsed were empty after being damaged in last month's earthquake.

Mr Kucuk said the Red Crescent was sending two more planeloads of relief suppliers to the area, including tents.

He described it as the biggest aftershock to hit the area and said it had frightened a lot of people.

The quake struck at 21:23 (19:23 GMT), with its epicentre at Edremit, about 15km (nine miles) south of Van city.


http://www.bbc.co.uk...europe-15668071




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