Not saying you're wrong
I'm not. But you are clearly trying to imply that I am.
but can you be more precise?
I don't have to. Try to distribute one of the Windows ISOs, even the ones that Microsoft publicly provides, from one of your servers, wherever you want to locate it, and see how long it takes for Microsoft to send a DMCA to your hosting provider. If you spend some time looking for Windows ISO content or Microsoft copyrighted content, you will find tons of notices about "this link has been removed due to DMCA". Or I can just point to this link.
If that's the point you are trying to make, there is no legal difference between distributing a collection of copyrighted works you have no right to distribute or a single copyrighted work. It's be like saying "Well, I was only distributing one song from artist X on my server! It's not like I was redistributing the whole album...". That is not going to fly in any court of law, regardless of jurisdiction, because international copyright laws are well defined at this stage and do apply.
Oh, and you can try to claim "fair use" or "but I'm not trying to profit from it!" and see where that takes you.
If you want to prove the point that Microsoft won't do anything if you redistribute one of their copyrighted files, and want to disprove what I am stating, then please go ahead and publicly announce that "I, dije, will be redistributing this specific Microsoft copyrighted file, not for profit and on the grounds of what I believe to be fair use. You can download it from my server at this URL". In other words, the onus is on you to prove me wrong, and not on me to demonstrate that "In every single case where someone published a Microsoft copyrighted file, Microsoft issued a DMCA", which isn't actually the point I am making and which, of course is not something that can be demonstrated, especially as I am confident that, as I said, there exist many many cases that will fly under Microsoft's radar.
I'm asking because I seem to have a vague recollection -- do not rely on this, anyone, IANAL -- that there is some precedent for a court accepting that MS was in practice so lax on enforcement that they could be held to be in tacit collusion with piracy of their own product. (The reason for their laxity is said to be because they prefer you to have a pirated copy of their software to a licit copy of someone else's, so long as nobody is making money, in order to maintain their monopoly -- monopoly being a crime of which MS definitely has been convicted in US federal court).
Ah, yes, the old "I've heard that there might have been some instance of something that went in my way... too bad I can't actually point to anything that corroborates what I am asserting".
For someone asking somebody else to demonstrate their assertion (which I did with the DMCA notices for Microsoft copyrighted work above), you sure are light with regards to tangible evidence for the point you are trying to make.
My statement is not based on hear say, but on actual instances that I have seen happening. If you look hard enough, I would assert that you can still find some copies of the HPUSBFW floating around with the MS-DOS files, and then newer versions where it was removed. And again, as I have shown above, MS DMCA notices are literally a dime a dozen.
On the other hand, your assertion is pure hear and say.
Anyway, just to be clear, I am not advocating or recommending that anyone circulate MS binaries without MS' permission (...)
Yet it does seem to me like you do believe that there are legal exceptions to do so.
Until proven otherwise (with the onus on you to find a public legal case where that actually happened because, in this instance, you only have to find a single example, as opposed to what you asked me to demonstrate, that in every possible instance and jurisdiction, Microsoft will go against redistribution of their work), there is no legal framework or precedent where anyone that hasn't entered a redistribution agreement with Microsoft, is entitled, even implicitly, to publish binaries that are copyrighted by Microsoft that aren't also subject to a non-proprietary license (since Microsoft does sometime publish Open Source work, but that is a different matter, and the files we are talking about clearly do not fall under that category).
The prospect of MS execs arbitrarily shutting down Github projects is exactly why I have taken my code off Github and moved it to a more open and freedom-respecting service, and I urge everyone to act similarly.
I wouldn't go that far.
As long as you do take copyright seriously and don't try to brush it under the carpet with the hope that, maybe, the owner of the copyrighted work will just let it slide, you will be fine with GitHub...
However, with Microsoft now owning GitHub, one can easily imagine them having a script, that parses the content of every single GitHub repo for binaries that contain a "Copyright Microsoft", to flag them for closer inspection, and potential removal or repo shutdown...
There's a lot of naive lauding of MS for its current moves around open source. (Notice that they still can't bring themselves to say "free software"). As if MS would make those moves if they still had any other choice! MS fought long, hard and very, very dirty, at tremendous cost to more talented, more ethical people, and they lost. They tried every kind of malicious and underhanded scheme they could think of; they lost. We beat them, and we didn't even have to try. MS' malignity was utterly defeated by the one thing they could not control through monopolist licensing: freedom-respecting software.
Listen to us greybeards: once a scorpion, always a scorpion. Do not trust Microsoft. Ever. It only exists because of the crime of monopoly. All that money came from the denial of choice to the market, not free choice by the market. Nobody ever chose Microsoft, and everybody inside Microsoft knows it. Don't be surprised when the scorpion stings; it can't help it. It just has to, sooner or later. Try not to be the one being stung. Make and use better software that everyone is irrevocably free to use, read, change and distribute.
I am actually not sure if you are being ironic here.
Microsoft has made a lot of strides towards Open Source, but as far as I'm concerned, as long as they forcibly continue to prevent anything GPLv3 from being signed for Secure Boot, even as they happily sign shims that in turn allow GPLv3 binaries to be executed in a Secure Boot environment (which, logically, completely invalidates their alleged "reasoning" for not wanting to sign GPLv3 because it would force them to relinquish keys and leave Secure Boot wide open), it remains pretty clear that, yes, some of their "We're friendly to Open Source now!" message is just a facade.